Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ Ball State KENT @ BALL

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

3-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

3-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Trey Rubinstein
KEY GAME

Trey Rubinstein

#32 | Linebacker
@
Layton Starks
KEY GAME

Layton Starks

#11 | Linebacker
Player
Trey Rubinstein None-None
Layton Starks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
100%
📊
BALL STATE
0%
KENT STATE --
BALL STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Ball State)
Kent StateKENT (-3.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

11.2%

Ball State Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

KENT By 1-6 points

5.9%

KENT By 7-13 points

3.2%

BALL By 1-6 points

10.7%

BALL By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
KENT STATE
27
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
20
KENT STATE
27
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Ball State Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim Ball State (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
B
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 BALL @ KENT 13 - 26
Nov 5, 2025 KENT @ BALL 13 - 17
Oct 12, 2024 BALL @ KENT 37 - 35
Nov 18, 2023 KENT @ BALL 3 - 34
Nov 1, 2022 BALL @ KENT 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +131.0% more
Ball State: 2.0 vs Kent State: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.8% more
Ball State: 144.8 vs Kent State: 95.4
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
Ball State: 14.9 vs Kent State: 12.6
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Ball State: 287.8 vs Kent State: 263.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 10.0 13
BALL Score 27.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 12.6 14.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 144.8 / 95.4 65.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 287.8 / 263.5 238.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
KENT
BALL
KENT
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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