MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
4-2 | Road
117
INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-5 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
PACERS
100%
BUCKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
25.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.2%
IND By 1-7 points
13.7%
IND By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
125
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
117
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
116
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
122
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.0
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.3% more
Milwaukee: 15.2
vs
Indiana: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.7%
Milwaukee: 42.6%
vs
Indiana: 30.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Milwaukee: 53.8%
vs
Indiana: 44.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Indiana: 38.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
125.0
117
IND Score
117.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 42.6
24.0 / 43.0
Assists
11.2 / 15.2
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
1.6 / 1.6
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 53.8
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
38.7 / 35.2
76.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
22.1 / 21.4
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
3.5 / 3.3
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
6.6 / 6.7
12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIL
IND
MIL
ML
48%
47-50
64%
61-35
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
57-40
68%
65-31
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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