DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
2-4 | Road
102
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
3-2 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DAL By 1-7 points
16.9%
DAL By 8-14 points
6.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Dallas
108
DALLAS
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025
DAL @ HOU
102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025
DAL @ HOU
96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+142.7% more
Houston: 5.0
vs
Dallas: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+87.2% more
Houston: 5.3
vs
Dallas: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+39.8% more
Houston: 11.6
vs
Dallas: 8.3
Rebounding (L5)
+36.1% more
Houston: 31.7
vs
Dallas: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.0
102
HOU Score
118.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.7 / 38.7
28.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.5 / 12.6
23.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.1
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 40.4
46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
48.0 / 43.5
67.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
31.7 / 23.3
54.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.3 / 2.8
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 8.3
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DAL
HOU
DAL
ML
61%
69-44
62%
63-39
59%
51-35
54%
44-37
ATS
62%
70-43
67%
68-34
59%
51-35
54%
44-37
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Travis Kelce's Week 4 Dud: Why Fantasy Managers Should Hold Tight
Draymond Green Blames Voided Trade for Knecht's Lakers Downfall