PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
8-3-2 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
6-5-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Nick Robertson
#14 | Left Wing@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Robertson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.00 | 0.919 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.00
--
Save %
0.919
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PENGUINS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+26.3% more
Toronto: 22.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 17.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.6% more
Toronto: 18.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.3
Power Play % (L5)
+40.4%
Pittsburgh: 47.5%
vs
Toronto: 7.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+14.0% more
Pittsburgh: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
3
TOR Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.3 / 15.3
24.0 / 5.0
Faceoff %
53.5 / 54.1
58.9 / 41.1
Hits
22.2 / 17.6
35.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
7.1 / 47.5
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.6 / 29.1
20.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 5.1
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PIT
TOR
PIT
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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