Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Golden Bears CSUB @ CAL

CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD

ROADRUNNERSCSUB

0-0  |  Road

60
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

0-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
ROADRUNNERS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (California)
RoadrunnersCSUB (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

18.4%

Golden Bears Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CSUB By 1-7 points

12.2%

CSUB By 8-14 points

4.0%

CAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

CAL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
92
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
65
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 CSUB @ CAL 60 - 87
Nov 4, 2024 CSUB @ CAL 73 - 86
Nov 13, 2023 CSUB @ CAL 63 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
California: 7.5 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +14.6% more
California: 3.4 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +8.6% more
California: 12.7 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Cal State Bakersfield: 33.8% vs California: 27.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score 83.0 60
CAL Score 92.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 33.8 22.0 / 33.0
Assists 9.6 / 10.2 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.9 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 42.5 54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 79.6 72.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 37.0 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.7 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.7 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1 (37.9%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.1
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
CSUB
CAL
CSUB
ML
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
77% 24-7
71% 22-9
ATS
64% 21-12
61% 19-12
78% 25-7
71% 22-9
TTL
70% 23-10
58% 18-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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