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YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

0-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

0-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
PENGUINS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Youngstown State)
PenguinsYSU (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

75.8%

Panthers Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)

YSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

YSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

PITT By 1-7 points

15.3%

PITT By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
67
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
63
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
78
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 YSU @ PITT 59 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +58.8% more
Youngstown State: 5.1 vs Pittsburgh: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Youngstown State: 36.0 vs Pittsburgh: 32.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Youngstown State: 34.3% vs Pittsburgh: 29.5%
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Pittsburgh: 7.8 vs Youngstown State: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 74.0 59
PITT Score 67.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 34.3 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.9 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.1 / 5.1 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 41.8 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 71.4 81.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 36.0 46.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.8 / 6.5 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.0 18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
YSU
PITT
YSU
ML
58% 19-14
57% 17-13
45% 15-18
67% 20-10
ATS
64% 21-12
47% 14-16
45% 15-18
67% 20-10
TTL
61% 20-13
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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