TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
0-1 | Road
48
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
1-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
FALCONS
0%
BOBCATS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
TXST By 1-7 points
13.7%
TXST By 8-14 points
4.8%
BGSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
BGSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
49
TEXAS STATE
Bowling Green
57
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Texas State
68
TEXAS STATE
Bowling Green
72
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.0
Win
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim
u146.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
TXST @ BGSU
48 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+32.8% more
Bowling Green: 15.3
vs
Texas State: 11.5
Blocks (L5)
+42.2% more
Texas State: 4.4
vs
Bowling Green: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+39.3% more
Texas State: 8.6
vs
Bowling Green: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+31.7% more
Texas State: 14.8
vs
Bowling Green: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
49.0
48
BGSU Score
57.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 36.2
45.0 / 18.0
Assists
10.1 / 14.8
16.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.4
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 44.9
53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 71.3
69.0 / 43.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 39.2
37.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.2 / 8.6
11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 11.5
12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
TXST
BGSU
TXST
ML
66%
21-11
42%
13-18
56%
18-14
83%
25-5
ATS
72%
23-9
48%
15-16
56%
18-14
84%
26-5
TTL
53%
17-15
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
