Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Crimson Tide UND @ ALA

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

0-0  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Alabama)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

1.8%

Crimson Tide Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

UND By 1-7 points

1.4%

UND By 8-14 points

0.2%

ALA By 1-7 points

6.8%

ALA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH DAKOTA
90
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
65
NORTH DAKOTA
88
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 UND @ ALA 62 - 91
Dec 18, 2024 ALA @ UND 97 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +56.4% more
Alabama: 4.6 vs North Dakota: 2.9
Steals (L5) +51.7% more
Alabama: 7.3 vs North Dakota: 4.8
Assists (L5) +34.3% more
Alabama: 18.6 vs North Dakota: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Alabama: 77.0% vs North Dakota: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 69.0 62
ALA Score 90.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 33.5 30.0 / 25.0
Assists 18.6 / 13.8 22.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.9 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 46.1 53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 70.1 78.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 37.1 46.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.3 / 4.8 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 14.7 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UND
ALA
UND
ML
63% 22-13
44% 15-19
58% 19-14
50% 17-17
ATS
60% 21-14
50% 17-17
58% 19-14
50% 17-17
TTL
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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