SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
5-0 | Road
118
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
2-4 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
SUNS
100%
SPURS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
13.7%
SA By 8-14 points
24.3%
PHX By 1-7 points
4.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Phoenix
96
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
San Antonio
109
SAN ANTONIO
Phoenix
121
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
100 - 101
Feb 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
94 - 121
Nov 23, 2025
SA @ PHX
102 - 111
Nov 2, 2025
SA @ PHX
118 - 130
Apr 11, 2025
SA @ PHX
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.8% more
San Antonio: 2.0
vs
Phoenix: 1.1
Rebounding (L5)
+45.8% more
San Antonio: 15.2
vs
Phoenix: 8.2
Turnovers (L5)
+36.7% more
San Antonio: 5.0
vs
Phoenix: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+35.8% more
San Antonio: 7.7
vs
Phoenix: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
112.0
118
PHX Score
96.0
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 38.5
58.0 / 24.0
Assists
4.9 / 7.7
34.0 / 21.0
Blocks
1.1 / 2.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 55.1
58.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
13.7 / 20.6
86.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
8.2 / 15.2
39.0 / 41.0
Steals
2.1 / 2.6
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
3.2 / 5.0
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
SA
PHX
SA
ML
57%
60-45
60%
111-73
51%
45-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
107-76-1
51%
45-43
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
61-42-2
74%
134-47-3
100%
88-0
100%
105-0
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