WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
6-5-0 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
4-4-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.77 | 0.875 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.79 | 0.912 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77 Ldr
GAA
2.79
0.875
Save %
Ldr 0.912
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
SABRES
100%
CAPITALS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
17.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
BUF By 1 goal
6.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Buffalo
1
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
BUF @ WSH
2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026
WSH @ BUF
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
BUF @ WSH
8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+45.5% more
Buffalo: 18.1
vs
Washington: 12.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+41.7% more
Buffalo: 34.7
vs
Washington: 24.5
Power Play % (L5)
+5.5%
Buffalo: 15.1%
vs
Washington: 9.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
BUF Score
1.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.1 / 12.5
13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
41.7 / 43.1
48.1 / 51.9
Hits
18.9 / 20.5
22.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
1514.0 / 961.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
34.7 / 24.5
24.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 4.7
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
WSH
BUF
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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