Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Pacers GS @ IND

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

4-2  |  Road

109
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-5  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
WARRIORS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

88.5%

Pacers Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

20.1%

GS By 8-14 points

27.2%

IND By 1-7 points

8.0%

IND By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
100
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+11) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 IND @ GS 83 - 114
Nov 1, 2025 GS @ IND 109 - 114
Jan 10, 2025 GS @ IND 96 - 108
Dec 23, 2024 IND @ GS 111 - 105
Mar 22, 2024 IND @ GS 123 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.7% more
Golden State: 3.1 vs Indiana: 1.8
Assists (L5) +42.0% more
Golden State: 8.3 vs Indiana: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +33.6% more
Golden State: 5.8 vs Indiana: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.1% more
Golden State: 12.5 vs Indiana: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.0 109
IND Score 100.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 40.0 30.0 / 27.0
Assists 4.8 / 8.3 24.0 / 25.0
Blocks 0.9 / 1.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 48.8 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 15.0 / 24.1 86.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 9.6 / 12.5 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 1.8 / 3.1 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 3.8 / 5.8 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
GS
IND
GS
ML
48% 47-50
55% 95-79
54% 45-38
58% 49-35
ATS
59% 57-40
58% 101-73
54% 45-38
58% 49-35
TTL
54% 52-45
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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