TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
5-5-1 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
6-3-1 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.00 | 0.939 | -- |
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 5.92 | 0.789 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
5.92
0.939 Ldr
Save %
0.789
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
FLYERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PHI By 1 goal
19.7%
PHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
PHI @ TOR
3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
TOR @ PHI
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
PHI @ TOR
2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025
TOR @ PHI
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+37.0%
Philadelphia: 47.6%
vs
Toronto: 10.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+51.6% more
Toronto: 6.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+25.4% more
Toronto: 32.4
vs
Philadelphia: 24.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.7%
Toronto: 51.5%
vs
Philadelphia: 49.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
5
PHI Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.8 / 17.4
11.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
49.8 / 51.5
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
22.1 / 23.3
17.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
47.6 / 10.6
16.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.2 / 32.4
33.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.2 / 6.6
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
ATS
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
TTL
20%
1-4
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
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