Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Tar Heels CARK @ UNC

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

0-0  |  Road

54
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

0-0  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
BEARS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (North Carolina)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

8.1%

Tar Heels Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

CARK By 1-7 points

5.8%

CARK By 8-14 points

1.4%

UNC By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
81
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
58
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
92
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 CARK @ UNC 54 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.3% more
North Carolina: 3.1 vs Central Arkansas: 2.1
Assists (L5) +28.6% more
North Carolina: 15.6 vs Central Arkansas: 12.1
Steals (L5) +27.0% more
North Carolina: 7.0 vs Central Arkansas: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
North Carolina: 36.3 vs Central Arkansas: 30.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 67.0 54
UNC Score 81.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 26.2 34.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.6 / 12.1 23.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 43.5 51.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 86.8 82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 30.4 45.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.5 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 10.8 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
UNC
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
CARK
UNC
CARK
ML
76% 25-8
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
ATS
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
TTL
55% 18-15
50% 16-16-1
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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