GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
4-1 | Road
110
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
3-1 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
BUCKS
100%
WARRIORS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
GS By 1-7 points
26.8%
GS By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIL By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
75
GOLDEN STATE
Milwaukee
73
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
MIL @ GS
113 - 120
Oct 30, 2025
GS @ MIL
110 - 120
Mar 18, 2025
MIL @ GS
93 - 104
Feb 10, 2025
GS @ MIL
125 - 111
Mar 6, 2024
MIL @ GS
90 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.2% more
Golden State: 4.7
vs
Milwaukee: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
Golden State: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Golden State: 36.1%
vs
Milwaukee: 30.4%
Blocks (L5)
+37.6% more
Milwaukee: 2.1
vs
Golden State: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
75.0
110
MIL Score
73.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 39.9
40.9 / 40.2
Assists
11.7 / 12.4
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
2.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 48.4
51.0 / 49.7
Free Throw %
3040.0 / 3607.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
20.3 / 18.8
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
3.7 / 4.7
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
6.9 / 8.7
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
GS
MIL
GS
ML
64%
61-35
55%
95-79
60%
49-32
58%
49-35
ATS
68%
65-31
58%
101-73
60%
49-32
58%
49-35
TTL
55%
53-43
77%
134-40
100%
81-0
100%
84-0
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