MIAMI
HEATMIA
3-1 | Road
101
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
4-0 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
SPURS
0%
HEAT
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
MIA By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
13.7%
SA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
106
MIAMI
San Antonio
107
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
SA @ MIA
136 - 111
Oct 30, 2025
MIA @ SA
101 - 107
Oct 8, 2025
SA @ MIA
112 - 107
Feb 1, 2025
MIA @ SA
105 - 103
Jan 19, 2025
SA @ MIA
107 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.9% more
San Antonio: 3.1
vs
Miami: 1.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
San Antonio: 53.8%
vs
Miami: 47.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
San Antonio: 37.7%
vs
Miami: 34.7%
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Miami: 4.6
vs
San Antonio: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
106.0
101
SA Score
107.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 34.7
40.0 / 34.3
Assists
11.5 / 12.0
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
3.1 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
53.8 / 47.7
57.5 / 48.4
Free Throw %
3091.0 / 3414.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
22.8 / 23.3
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
3.9 / 4.6
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
7.5 / 8.5
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MIA
SA
MIA
ML
60%
111-73
48%
46-50
58%
61-44
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
107-76-1
51%
49-47
58%
61-44
59%
48-34
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
57-39
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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