ATLANTA
FALCONSATL
3-4 | Road
23
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
6-2 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Austin Hooper
#81 | Tight End@
KEY GAME
Bryce Baringer
#17 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | None-None |
| Bryce Baringer | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
PATRIOTS
0%
FALCONS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (New England)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)
ATL By 1-6 points
3.8%
ATL By 7-13 points
1.8%
NE By 1-6 points
7.9%
NE By 7-13 points
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
10
ATLANTA
New England
31
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
20
ATLANTA
New England
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Patriots
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Patriots (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u45.5
Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim
u45.5
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 2, 2025
ATL @ NE
23 - 24
Nov 18, 2021
NE @ ATL
25 - 0
Oct 22, 2017
ATL @ NE
7 - 23
Feb 5, 2017
NE @ ATL
34 - 28
Sep 29, 2013
NE @ ATL
30 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+33.5% more
New England: 136.6
vs
Atlanta: 102.4
First Downs (L5)
+20.9% more
New England: 21.2
vs
Atlanta: 17.6
Total Yards (L5)
+18.7% more
New England: 373.7
vs
Atlanta: 314.9
Yards Per Play (L5)
+15.6% more
New England: 6.1
vs
Atlanta: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
10.0
23
NE Score
31.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.2 / 17.6
23.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards
237.1 / 212.6
221.0 / 217.0
Rushing Yards
136.6 / 102.4
110.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.67 / 0.1
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards
373.7 / 314.9
331.0 / 288.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.1 / 5.2
4.9 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: +4.8
NE
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: +4.8
NE
Advantage
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.3
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
ATL
NE
ATL
ML
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
ATS
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
0%
0-4
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
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