Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Dolphins BAL @ MIA

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

2-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Thu, Oct 30 • 8:15 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-6  |  Home

6
Key Game
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
Tyler Loop None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
RAVENS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

41.5%

Dolphins Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

BAL By 1-6 points

15.3%

BAL By 7-13 points

12.9%

MIA By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
BALTIMORE
20
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
BALTIMORE
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2025 BAL @ MIA 28 - 6
Dec 31, 2023 MIA @ BAL 19 - 56
Sep 18, 2022 MIA @ BAL 42 - 38
Nov 11, 2021 BAL @ MIA 10 - 22
Sep 8, 2019 BAL @ MIA 59 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.6% more
Baltimore: 149.0 vs Miami: 112.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.9% more
Baltimore: 5.6 vs Miami: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 17.0 28
MIA Score 20.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 19.8 17.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 183.1 / 170.7 245.0 / 188.0
Rushing Yards 112.3 / 149.0 87.0 / 150.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 295.4 / 319.7 332.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.6 5.4 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BAL
MIA
BAL
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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