Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Dodgers TOR @ LAD

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

1-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

2-1  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Louis Varland None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 1
Jack Dreyer None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
20%
📊
DODGERS
80%
BLUE JAYS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Los Angeles)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

28.8%

Dodgers Cover

71.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

TOR By 1-2 runs

12.9%

TOR By 3-4 runs

7.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.34
TORONTO
6.58
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
80% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 LAD @ TOR 3 - 4
Apr 7, 2026 LAD @ TOR 4 - 1
Apr 6, 2026 LAD @ TOR 14 - 2
Nov 1, 2025 LAD @ TOR 5 - 4
Oct 31, 2025 LAD @ TOR 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.692
OPS
▲ .762
152
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +98.3% more
Los Angeles: 2.4 vs Toronto: 1.2
Errors (L5) +82.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.0
Home Runs (Season) +34.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season) +23.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.3 6
LAD Score 6.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 11.0 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 10.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 15.8 7.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.6 / 6.2 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
TOR
LAD
TOR
ML
56% 92-73
46% 74-87
48% 79-87
50% 80-80
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 90-71
43% 72-94
49% 79-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 80-76-5
44% 70-90-6
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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