Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Ohio State PSU @ OSU

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

7-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
James Peoples
KEY GAME

James Peoples

#1 | Running Back
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
James Peoples None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
PENN STATE --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Ohio State)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

2.3%

Ohio State Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

PSU By 7-13 points

0.5%

OSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
PENN STATE
38
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
24
PENN STATE
31
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Ohio State (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 PSU @ OSU 14 - 38
Nov 2, 2024 OSU @ PSU 20 - 13
Oct 21, 2023 PSU @ OSU 12 - 20
Oct 29, 2022 OSU @ PSU 44 - 31
Oct 30, 2021 PSU @ OSU 24 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +36.0% more
Ohio State: 426.2 vs Penn State: 313.5
First Downs (L5) +21.9% more
Ohio State: 22.6 vs Penn State: 18.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Ohio State: 0.5 vs Penn State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +77.7% more
Penn State: 1.5 vs Ohio State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 10.0 14
OSU Score 38.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 18.5 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 128.9 / 166.2 164.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 426.2 / 313.5 480.0 / 200.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
PSU
OSU
PSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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