Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ Air Force ARMY @ AFA

ARMY

ARMYARMY

3-4  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

2-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
@
Jaylin Reese
KEY GAME

Jaylin Reese

#45 | Linebacker
Player
Dawson Jones None-None
Jaylin Reese None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
100%
📊
AIR FORCE
0%
ARMY --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Air Force)
ArmyARMY (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

8.7%

Air Force Cover

91.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AFA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

ARMY By 1-6 points

4.8%

ARMY By 7-13 points

2.4%

AFA By 1-6 points

9.3%

AFA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
30
ARMY
49
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
17
ARMY
20
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Air Force (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
C
Sim Air Force (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 79.0
C
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 ARMY @ AFA 20 - 17
Nov 2, 2024 AFA @ ARMY 3 - 20
Nov 4, 2023 ARMY @ AFA 23 - 3
Nov 5, 2022 AFA @ ARMY 13 - 7
Nov 6, 2021 ARMY @ AFA 21 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +31.9% more
Air Force: 458.9 vs Army: 348.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.4% more
Air Force: 310.8 vs Army: 264.7
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
Air Force: 23.0 vs Army: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 30.0 20
AFA Score 49.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 19.6 23.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 310.8 / 264.7 174.0 / 193.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 458.9 / 348.0 335.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
ARMY
AFA
ARMY
ML
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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