Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ North Texas NAVY @ UNT

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

7-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

7-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Dalton Carnes
KEY GAME

Dalton Carnes

#11 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Dalton Carnes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
100%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
0%
NAVY --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
97.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Texas)
NavyNAVY (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

30.9%

North Texas Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

NAVY By 1-6 points

12.9%

NAVY By 7-13 points

9.6%

UNT By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
45
NAVY
52
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
20
NAVY
24
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Texas (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim North Texas (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 97.0
C
Sim u66.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 NAVY @ UNT 17 - 31
Oct 7, 2023 UNT @ NAVY 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +85.0% more
North Texas: 1.7 vs Navy: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +38.6% more
North Texas: 28.6 vs Navy: 20.7
Total Yards (L5) +25.2% more
North Texas: 577.6 vs Navy: 461.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.9% more
Navy: 305.3 vs North Texas: 180.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 45.0 17
UNT Score 52.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.6 / 20.7 22.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 180.3 / 305.3 190.0 / 311.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 577.6 / 461.3 424.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
NAVY
UNT
NAVY
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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