Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Kansas St TTU @ KSU

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

7-1  |  Road

43
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

4-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Austin Romaine
KEY GAME

Austin Romaine

#15 | Linebacker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Austin Romaine None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
0%
📊
KANSAS ST
100%
TEXAS TECH --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Texas Tech)
Texas TechTTU (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

71.6%

Kansas St Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TTU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-6 points

16.1%

TTU By 7-13 points

19.5%

KSU By 1-6 points

12.2%

KSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28
TEXAS TECH
20
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS TECH
31
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim Kansas St (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 TTU @ KSU 43 - 20
Oct 14, 2023 KSU @ TTU 38 - 21
Oct 1, 2022 TTU @ KSU 28 - 37
Oct 23, 2021 KSU @ TTU 25 - 24
Oct 3, 2020 TTU @ KSU 21 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.1% more
Texas Tech: 1.5 vs Kansas State: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Kansas State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Texas Tech: 420.8 vs Kansas State: 379.6
First Downs (L5) +9.3% more
Texas Tech: 21.6 vs Kansas State: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 28.0 43
KSU Score 20.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 21.6 11.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 154.9 / 165.3 126.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 379.6 / 420.8 325.0 / 436.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
TTU
KSU
TTU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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