Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Boston College ND @ BC

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

5-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-7  |  Home

10
Key Game
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
@
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Erik Schmidt None-None
Luca Lombardo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
0%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
100%
NOTRE DAME --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Notre Dame)
Notre DameND (-3.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

99.4%

Boston College Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ND -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-6 points

1.4%

ND By 7-13 points

4.1%

BC By 1-6 points

0.4%

BC By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45
NOTRE DAME
10
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
17
NOTRE DAME
31
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boston College Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Notre Dame (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Boston College (-31.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 ND @ BC 25 - 10
Nov 19, 2022 BC @ ND 0 - 44
Nov 14, 2020 ND @ BC 45 - 31
Nov 23, 2019 BC @ ND 7 - 40
Sep 16, 2017 ND @ BC 49 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.0% more
Notre Dame: 217.4 vs Boston College: 119.7
Total Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Notre Dame: 459.8 vs Boston College: 342.4
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Notre Dame: 23.4 vs Boston College: 19.5
Turnovers (L5) +93.0% more
Boston College: 1.9 vs Notre Dame: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 45.0 25
BC Score 10.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 23.4 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 119.7 / 217.4 12.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 342.4 / 459.8 281.0 / 458.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
BC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
ND
BC
ND
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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