GEORGIA
GEORGIAUGA
6-1 | Road
24
FLORIDA
FLORIDAFLA
3-4 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Josh Horton
#81 | Defensive Tackle@
KEY GAME
Jeramiah McCloud
#91 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Josh Horton | None-None |
| Jeramiah McCloud | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
0%
FLORIDA
100%
GEORGIA
--
FLORIDA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Georgia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UGA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)
UGA By 1-6 points
7.9%
UGA By 7-13 points
14.6%
FLA By 1-6 points
3.8%
FLA By 7-13 points
1.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia
31
GEORGIA
Florida
10
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Georgia
17
GEORGIA
Florida
31
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Georgia
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Florida
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Georgia (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim
Florida (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u50.5
Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim
u50.5
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 1, 2025
UGA @ FLA
24 - 20
Nov 2, 2024
FLA @ UGA
20 - 34
Oct 28, 2023
UGA @ FLA
43 - 20
Oct 29, 2022
FLA @ UGA
20 - 42
Oct 30, 2021
UGA @ FLA
34 - 7
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+25.9% more
Georgia: 26.5
vs
Florida: 19.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+23.8% more
Georgia: 175.1
vs
Florida: 133.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+20.0% more
Georgia: 0.5
vs
Florida: 0.3
Total Yards (L5)
+9.6% more
Georgia: 420.5
vs
Florida: 380.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UGA Score
31.0
24
FLA Score
10.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.6 / 26.5
16.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
133.5 / 175.1
115.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.5
0.18 / 0.47
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards
380.1 / 420.5
281.0 / 361.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
FLA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
FLA
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +12.9
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
UGA
FLA
UGA
ML
60%
3-2
100%
4-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
TTL
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
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