INDIANA
INDIANAIU
8-0 | Road
55
MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
4-3 | Home
10
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME
Mitch McCarthy
#44 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mitch McCarthy | None-None |
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
0%
MARYLAND
100%
INDIANA
--
MARYLAND
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
IU By 1-6 points
5.9%
IU By 7-13 points
12.1%
MD By 1-6 points
2.5%
MD By 7-13 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
31
INDIANA
Maryland
7
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
21
INDIANA
Maryland
28
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Indiana
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Maryland
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Indiana (+21)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim
Maryland (-21)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u50.5
Loss
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim
u50.5
Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 1, 2025
IU @ MD
55 - 10
Sep 28, 2024
MD @ IU
28 - 42
Sep 30, 2023
IU @ MD
17 - 44
Oct 15, 2022
MD @ IU
38 - 33
Oct 30, 2021
IU @ MD
35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+46.9% more
Indiana: 197.1
vs
Maryland: 104.7
First Downs (L5)
+30.2% more
Indiana: 25.2
vs
Maryland: 17.6
Total Yards (L5)
+25.3% more
Indiana: 451.9
vs
Maryland: 337.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+22.0% more
Indiana: 0.6
vs
Maryland: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
31.0
55
MD Score
7.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.6 / 25.2
11.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards
104.7 / 197.1
37.0 / 367.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.6
0.25 / 0.62
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards
337.6 / 451.9
293.0 / 588.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.0
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
MD
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
IU
MD
IU
ML
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
ATS
0%
0-5
60%
3-2
0%
0-5
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
100%
5-0
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