Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ Arkansas MSST @ ARK

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-4  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 4:00 PM ET
Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-6  |  Home

35
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Wyatt Simmons
KEY GAME

Wyatt Simmons

#10 | Linebacker
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Wyatt Simmons None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
📊
ARKANSAS
100%
MISSISSIPPI ST --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Mississippi StMSST (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

44.3%

Arkansas Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARK +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

MSST By 1-6 points

16.9%

MSST By 7-13 points

16.8%

ARK By 1-6 points

15.7%

ARK By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
37
MISSISSIPPI STATE
35
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
24
MISSISSIPPI STATE
27
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Sim Arkansas (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o66.5 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 MSST @ ARK 38 - 35
Oct 26, 2024 ARK @ MSST 58 - 25
Oct 21, 2023 MSST @ ARK 7 - 3
Oct 8, 2022 ARK @ MSST 17 - 40
Nov 6, 2021 MSST @ ARK 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.0% more
Arkansas: 2.3 vs Mississippi State: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Arkansas: 173.3 vs Mississippi State: 126.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Arkansas: 439.9 vs Mississippi State: 407.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Arkansas: 0.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 37.0 38
ARK Score 35.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 21.7 25.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 173.3 / 126.4 239.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 439.9 / 407.3 433.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
MSST
ARK
MSST
ML
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UTSA Silences Doubters with 31-24 Win Over USF After Hartline's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
South Alabama Outlasts Arkansas State 56-49 in Season's Highest-…
hjnews 6 minutes ago
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 5 hours, 41 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 11 hours, 34 minutes ago
SEC Power Rankings: Unraveling the Chaos After Another Turbulent…
hottytoddy 1 day, 5 hours ago