Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ Troy ARST @ TROY

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

4-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

6-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Reed Linder None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
100%
📊
TROY
0%
ARKANSAS ST --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Troy)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

38.8%

Troy Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

ARST By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

12.1%

TROY By 1-6 points

17.0%

TROY By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
ARKANSAS STATE
31
TROY
Simulated Score
20
ARKANSAS STATE
27
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Troy (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 ARST @ TROY 23 - 10
Oct 26, 2024 TROY @ ARST 31 - 34
Oct 7, 2023 ARST @ TROY 3 - 37
Nov 26, 2022 TROY @ ARST 48 - 19
Oct 31, 2020 TROY @ ARST 38 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.8% more
Arkansas State: 1.3 vs Troy: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.8% more
Arkansas State: 174.1 vs Troy: 130.8
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
Arkansas State: 23.9 vs Troy: 19.7
Total Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Arkansas State: 401.1 vs Troy: 356.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 27.0 23
TROY Score 31.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 23.9 11.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 130.8 / 174.1 21.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 356.5 / 401.1 187.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
ARST
TROY
ARST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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