DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
1-1 | Road
127
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
2-1 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
DEN By 1-7 points
0.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
0.0%
MIN By 1-7 points
1.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
83
DENVER
Minnesota
111
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
110
DENVER
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.5
Loss
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.0% more
Minnesota: 3.6
vs
Denver: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+9.9% more
Minnesota: 11.3
vs
Denver: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Minnesota: 44.2%
vs
Denver: 36.7%
Assists (L5)
+8.5% more
Denver: 17.8
vs
Minnesota: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
83.0
127
MIN Score
111.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.2 / 36.7
50.0 / 40.0
Assists
16.3 / 17.8
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.6
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 50.6
48.8 / 53.7
Free Throw %
4832.0 / 5577.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
29.3 / 28.5
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
5.0 / 5.3
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.3
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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