Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Warriors MEM @ GS

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

2-1  |  Road

118
FINAL
Mon, Oct 27 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
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GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

2-1  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

42.1%

Warriors Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MEM By 1-7 points

26.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

18.6%

GS By 1-7 points

23.0%

GS By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
125
MEMPHIS
123
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
109
MEMPHIS
112
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o239.0 Win
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 GS @ MEM 133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026 MEM @ GS 113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025 MEM @ GS 118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025 MEM @ GS 116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025 GS @ MEM 134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.9% more
Memphis: 4.0 vs Golden State: 3.4
Steals (L5) +120.2% more
Golden State: 10.6 vs Memphis: 4.8
Assists (L5) +64.8% more
Golden State: 27.9 vs Memphis: 17.0
Turnovers (L5) +58.8% more
Golden State: 19.5 vs Memphis: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 125.0 118
GS Score 123.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 31.0 40.2 / 29.7
Assists 27.9 / 17.0 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.0 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 45.9 49.7 / 51.2
Free Throw % 8116.0 / 5478.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 27.3 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 10.6 / 4.8 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 19.5 / 12.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MEM
GS
MEM
ML
55% 95-79
57% 59-44
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 101-73
63% 65-38
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
TTL
77% 134-40
70% 71-31-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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