Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Timberwolves IND @ MIN

INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-2  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-1  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PACERS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Minnesota)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

11.5%

Timberwolves Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

IND By 1-7 points

8.0%

IND By 8-14 points

2.2%

MIN By 1-7 points

20.1%

MIN By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
106
INDIANA
118
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 MIN @ IND 124 - 104
Oct 26, 2025 IND @ MIN 110 - 114
Oct 7, 2025 IND @ MIN 135 - 134
Mar 24, 2025 MIN @ IND 103 - 119
Mar 17, 2025 IND @ MIN 132 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.2% more
Minnesota: 5.4 vs Indiana: 3.0
Assists (L5) +50.7% more
Minnesota: 24.4 vs Indiana: 16.2
Rebounding (L5) +35.0% more
Minnesota: 43.9 vs Indiana: 32.5
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
Minnesota: 17.0 vs Indiana: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 106.0 110
MIN Score 118.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 33.8 50.0 / 30.2
Assists 24.4 / 16.2 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.0 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 44.8 48.8 / 43.8
Free Throw % 7248.0 / 5075.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 32.5 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.1 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 12.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
IND
MIN
IND
ML
54% 63-53
48% 47-50
54% 50-43
54% 45-38
ATS
58% 67-49
59% 57-40
54% 50-43
54% 45-38
TTL
63% 72-43-1
54% 52-45
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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