PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
3-2-1 | Road
1
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
2-4-1 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 2.06 | 0.939 | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 1.00 | 0.957 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.06
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.939
Save %
Ldr 0.957
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
SENATORS
0%
FLYERS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
1
PHILADELPHIA
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
OTT @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025
OTT @ PHI
3 - 2
Oct 23, 2025
PHI @ OTT
1 - 2
Apr 13, 2025
PHI @ OTT
3 - 4
Mar 11, 2025
OTT @ PHI
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.2% more
Ottawa: 27.2
vs
Philadelphia: 22.6
Power Play % (L5)
+15.6%
Ottawa: 34.9%
vs
Philadelphia: 19.3%
Hits (L5)
+12.1% more
Ottawa: 23.7
vs
Philadelphia: 21.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.8%
Ottawa: 57.8%
vs
Philadelphia: 53.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
1.0
1
OTT Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.4 / 13.8
16.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
57.8 / 53.0
44.2 / 55.8
Hits
23.7 / 21.2
17.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
3486.0 / 1929.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 22.6
33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
PHI
OTT
PHI
ML
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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