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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Oct 27 • 8:15 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

4-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Charles Omenihu
KEY GAME

Charles Omenihu

#90 | Defensive End
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Charles Omenihu None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
COMMANDERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

47.2%

Chiefs Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

WSH By 1-6 points

16.1%

WSH By 7-13 points

14.6%

KC By 1-6 points

16.7%

KC By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
28
WASHINGTON
29
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
17
WASHINGTON
30
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2025 WSH @ KC 7 - 28
Oct 17, 2021 KC @ WSH 31 - 13
Oct 2, 2017 WSH @ KC 20 - 29
Dec 8, 2013 KC @ WSH 45 - 10
Oct 18, 2009 KC @ WSH 14 - 6
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +30.5% more
Kansas City: 25.7 vs Washington: 19.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
Kansas City: 261.5 vs Washington: 203.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.7% more
Kansas City: 391.7 vs Washington: 344.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 28.0 7
KC Score 29.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 19.7 26.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 261.5 / 203.5 284.0 / 200.0
Rushing Yards 130.2 / 141.1 148.0 / 60.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 391.7 / 344.6 432.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.8 6.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
WSH
KC
WSH
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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