Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Ravens CHI @ BAL

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-2  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-5  |  Home

30
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
RAVENS
100%
BEARS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

76.2%

Ravens Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

15.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.7%

BAL By 1-6 points

10.7%

BAL By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
CHICAGO
21
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
27
CHICAGO
20
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 CHI @ BAL 16 - 30
Nov 21, 2021 BAL @ CHI 16 - 13
Oct 15, 2017 CHI @ BAL 27 - 24
Nov 17, 2013 BAL @ CHI 20 - 23
Dec 20, 2009 CHI @ BAL 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Chicago: 203.0 vs Baltimore: 167.0
Total Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Chicago: 351.0 vs Baltimore: 302.0
First Downs (L5) +10.2% more
Chicago: 19.6 vs Baltimore: 17.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.7% more
Chicago: 148.0 vs Baltimore: 135.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 31.0 16
BAL Score 21.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 19.6 24.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 167.0 / 203.0 178.0 / 276.0
Rushing Yards 135.1 / 148.0 177.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 302.0 / 351.0 355.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.6 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHI
BAL
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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