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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-6  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
@
Matthew Bergeron
KEY GAME

Matthew Bergeron

#65 | Guard
Player
Bradley Pinion None-None
Matthew Bergeron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
FALCONS
0%
DOLPHINS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Atlanta)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

30.9%

Falcons Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.6%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MIAMI
31
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
23
MIAMI
27
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 ATL @ MIA 17 - 12
Oct 26, 2025 MIA @ ATL 34 - 10
Oct 24, 2021 ATL @ MIA 30 - 28
Oct 15, 2017 MIA @ ATL 20 - 17
Sep 22, 2013 ATL @ MIA 23 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.7% more
Atlanta: 131.1 vs Miami: 98.0
Total Yards (L5) +33.5% more
Atlanta: 365.9 vs Miami: 274.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +33.3% more
Atlanta: 234.8 vs Miami: 176.1
First Downs (L5) +31.7% more
Atlanta: 20.9 vs Miami: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 24.0 34
ATL Score 31.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 15.8 11.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 234.8 / 176.1 168.0 / 197.0
Rushing Yards 131.1 / 98.0 45.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 365.9 / 274.1 213.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 4.9 4.3 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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