Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Patriots CLE @ NE

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

5-2  |  Home

32
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
BROWNS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (New England)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

3.2%

Patriots Cover

96.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

CLE By 1-6 points

1.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

0.8%

NE By 1-6 points

4.8%

NE By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
CLEVELAND
26
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 26.0
D
Sim u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 NE @ CLE 13 - 37
Oct 26, 2025 CLE @ NE 13 - 32
Oct 16, 2022 NE @ CLE 38 - 15
Nov 14, 2021 CLE @ NE 7 - 45
Oct 27, 2019 CLE @ NE 13 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +50.9% more
New England: 233.2 vs Cleveland: 154.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +47.5% more
New England: 5.8 vs Cleveland: 4.0
Total Yards (L5) +39.5% more
New England: 349.6 vs Cleveland: 250.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.1% more
New England: 116.4 vs Cleveland: 96.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 0.0 13
NE Score 26.0 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 16.9 23.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 233.2 / 154.5 245.0 / 145.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 96.1 177.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 349.6 / 250.7 422.0 / 213.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.0 6.5 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
CLE
NE
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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