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TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-6  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 4:25 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

6-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Joey Slye
KEY GAME

Joey Slye

#6 | Place kicker
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Joey Slye None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
TITANS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Indianapolis)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

11.2%

Colts Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

TEN By 1-6 points

5.9%

TEN By 7-13 points

3.2%

IND By 1-6 points

10.7%

IND By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
TENNESSEE
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
20
TENNESSEE
24
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 TEN @ IND 14 - 38
Sep 21, 2025 IND @ TEN 41 - 20
Dec 22, 2024 TEN @ IND 30 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 IND @ TEN 20 - 17
Dec 3, 2023 IND @ TEN 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +93.9% more
Indianapolis: 127.1 vs Tennessee: 65.6
Total Yards (L5) +47.3% more
Indianapolis: 372.7 vs Tennessee: 253.0
First Downs (L5) +45.9% more
Indianapolis: 23.4 vs Tennessee: 16.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +42.2% more
Indianapolis: 6.3 vs Tennessee: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 10.0 14
IND Score 27.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 16.1 21.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 245.6 / 187.4 256.0 / 228.0
Rushing Yards 127.1 / 65.6 164.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 372.7 / 253.0 420.0 / 341.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 4.5 8.1 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
TEN
IND
TEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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