Home / NHL Projections NHL / Kraken @ Capitals SEA @ WSH

SEATTLE

KRAKENSEA

3-1-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Oct 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

4-2-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Joshua Mahura
GOALTENDER

Joshua Mahura

#28 | Defense
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Joshua Mahura None-None -- -- --
Logan Thompson None-None 1.00 0.947 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.947
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KRAKEN
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
KRAKEN --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
KrakenSEA (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kraken Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

SEA By 1 goal

12.1%

SEA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SEATTLE
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
SEATTLE
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 WSH @ SEA 1 - 5
Oct 21, 2025 SEA @ WSH 1 - 4
Mar 9, 2025 SEA @ WSH 2 - 4
Jan 23, 2025 WSH @ SEA 3 - 0
Mar 14, 2024 WSH @ SEA 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.7% more
Washington: 32.9 vs Seattle: 26.4
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Washington: 50.4% vs Seattle: 43.7%
Blocked Shots (L5) +45.6% more
Seattle: 17.3 vs Washington: 9.4
Takeaways (L5) +22.4% more
Seattle: 5.1 vs Washington: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.0 1
WSH Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 9.4 / 17.3 16.0 / 19.0
Faceoff % 50.4 / 43.7 45.8 / 54.2
Hits 25.6 / 25.9 18.0 / 13.0
Power Play % 17.9 / 26.8 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.9 / 26.4 34.0 / 19.0
Takeaways 3.9 / 5.1 8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SEA
WSH
SEA
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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