NEW JERSEY
DEVILSNJ
4-1-0 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
3-2-1 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Allen
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.920 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 4.12 | 0.882 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
4.12
0.920 Ldr
Save %
0.882
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DEVILS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
DEVILS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NJ By 1 goal
12.1%
NJ By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Jersey
3
NEW JERSEY
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New Jersey
3
NEW JERSEY
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
TOR @ NJ
3 - 4
Dec 30, 2025
NJ @ TOR
0 - 4
Oct 21, 2025
NJ @ TOR
5 - 2
Jan 16, 2025
NJ @ TOR
3 - 4
Dec 10, 2024
TOR @ NJ
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.5%
Toronto: 55.5%
vs
New Jersey: 45.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+44.4% more
New Jersey: 5.3
vs
Toronto: 2.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.2% more
New Jersey: 18.3
vs
Toronto: 15.5
Power Play % (L5)
+10.8%
New Jersey: 30.5%
vs
Toronto: 19.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NJ Score
3.0
5
TOR Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.5 / 18.3
16.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
55.5 / 45.0
50.9 / 49.1
Hits
24.5 / 23.0
22.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
19.7 / 30.5
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
28.3 / 26.7
25.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
2.9 / 5.3
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NJ
TOR
NJ
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-2-1
75%
3-1
50%
1-1-1
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