Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ E Michigan OHIO @ EMU

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

4-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

2-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Rudy Kessinger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
0%
📊
E MICHIGAN
100%
OHIO --
E MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

23.8%

E Michigan Cover

76.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around EMU +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

OHIO By 1-6 points

15.3%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.7%

EMU By 1-6 points

10.7%

EMU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
OHIO
21
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
20
OHIO
27
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim E Michigan Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI E Michigan (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
C
Sim E Michigan (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 OHIO @ EMU 28 - 21
Nov 13, 2024 EMU @ OHIO 10 - 35
Nov 9, 2021 OHIO @ EMU 34 - 26
Sep 23, 2017 OHIO @ EMU 27 - 20
Oct 15, 2016 EMU @ OHIO 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.7% more
Ohio: 245.9 vs Eastern Michigan: 128.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Ohio: 453.8 vs Eastern Michigan: 354.8
First Downs (L5) +19.9% more
Ohio: 23.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 18.9
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs Eastern Michigan: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 31.0 28
EMU Score 21.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 23.7 17.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 128.7 / 245.9 112.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 354.8 / 453.8 371.0 / 487.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
OHIO
EMU
OHIO
ML
67% 4-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 3-3
25% 1-3
33% 2-4
20% 1-4
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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