Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ C Michigan MASS @ CMU

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-7  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

4-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
100%
📊
C MICHIGAN
0%
UMASS --
C MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
19.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Central Michigan)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

36.0%

C Michigan Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

MASS By 1-6 points

14.2%

MASS By 7-13 points

11.3%

CMU By 1-6 points

16.9%

CMU By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MASSACHUSETTS
12
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
17
MASSACHUSETTS
31
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI C Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim C Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI C Michigan (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim C Michigan (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 19.0
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 MASS @ CMU 13 - 38
Nov 23, 2013 MASS @ CMU 0 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +104.3% more
Central Michigan: 210.9 vs Massachusetts: 103.2
Total Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Central Michigan: 335.0 vs Massachusetts: 266.9
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Central Michigan: 17.3 vs Massachusetts: 14.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Central Michigan: 0.4 vs Massachusetts: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 7.0 13
CMU Score 12.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 14.5 23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 210.9 / 103.2 279.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 335.0 / 266.9 502.0 / 292.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
MASS
CMU
MASS
ML
100% 5-0
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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