Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Iowa MINN @ IOWA

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

5-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

5-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Alan Soukup
KEY GAME

Alan Soukup

#52 | Long Snapper
@
Nolan DeLong
KEY GAME

Nolan DeLong

#31 | Linebacker
Player
Alan Soukup None-None
Nolan DeLong None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
0%
📊
IOWA
100%
MINNESOTA --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Minnesota)
MinnesotaMINN (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

74.0%

Iowa Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MINN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MINN By 1-6 points

15.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

19.7%

IOWA By 1-6 points

11.5%

IOWA By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MINNESOTA
15
IOWA
Simulated Score
17
MINNESOTA
20
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Minnesota Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Minnesota (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Iowa (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Sim u39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 MINN @ IOWA 3 - 41
Sep 21, 2024 IOWA @ MINN 31 - 14
Oct 21, 2023 MINN @ IOWA 12 - 10
Nov 19, 2022 IOWA @ MINN 13 - 10
Nov 13, 2021 MINN @ IOWA 22 - 27
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +10.2% more
Minnesota: 17.8 vs Iowa: 15.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.1% more
Iowa: 195.2 vs Minnesota: 114.7
Turnovers (L5) +49.0% more
Iowa: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 24.0 3
IOWA Score 15.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 17.8 13.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 195.2 / 114.7 133.0 / 24.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 316.5 / 307.9 274.0 / 133.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
IOWA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
IOWA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MINN
IOWA
MINN
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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