Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ N Illinois BALL @ NIU

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

3-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
@
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
Player
Carson Holmer None-None
Jake Ference None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
0%
📊
N ILLINOIS
100%
BALL STATE --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
87.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

41.5%

N Illinois Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NIU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

BALL By 1-6 points

17.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

17.5%

NIU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NIU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
45
BALL STATE
42
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
24
BALL STATE
27
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ball State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI N Illinois (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim N Illinois (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 87.0
C
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 BALL @ NIU 7 - 21
Oct 26, 2024 NIU @ BALL 23 - 25
Nov 7, 2023 BALL @ NIU 20 - 17
Oct 1, 2022 NIU @ BALL 38 - 44
Nov 10, 2021 BALL @ NIU 29 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.7% more
Ball State: 1.5 vs Northern Illinois: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 45.0 7
NIU Score 42.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.2 / 14.8 17.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 156.7 / 147.7 305.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 279.2 / 294.2 370.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
BALL
NIU
BALL
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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