Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ Arkansas St GASO @ ARST

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

3-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

3-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Nigel Nelson
KEY GAME

Nigel Nelson

#22 | Linebacker
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Nigel Nelson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
100%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
0%
GA SOUTHERN --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arkansas State)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

41.5%

Arkansas St Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

GASO By 1-6 points

15.3%

GASO By 7-13 points

12.9%

ARST By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARST By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
31
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
34
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
27
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arkansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas St (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Arkansas St (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 GASO @ ARST 24 - 34
Oct 2, 2021 ARST @ GASO 33 - 59
Nov 23, 2019 GASO @ ARST 33 - 38
Sep 29, 2018 ARST @ GASO 21 - 28
Oct 4, 2017 ARST @ GASO 43 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Georgia Southern: 0.5 vs Arkansas State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Georgia Southern: 1.2 vs Arkansas State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Georgia Southern: 143.7 vs Arkansas State: 128.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 31.0 24
ARST Score 34.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 22.3 29.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 128.1 / 143.7 266.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 360.7 / 379.3 482.0 / 336.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
ARST
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
GASO
ARST
GASO
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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