Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Miami STAN @ MIA

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

3-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

5-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Carter Davis
KEY GAME

Carter Davis

#46 | Linebacker
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Carter Davis None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
100%
📊
MIAMI
0%
STANFORD --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Miami)
StanfordSTAN (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

26.0%

Miami Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

STAN By 1-6 points

11.5%

STAN By 7-13 points

8.0%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16
STANFORD
25
MIAMI
Simulated Score
20
STANFORD
31
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Miami (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 MIA @ STAN 45 - 6
Oct 25, 2025 STAN @ MIA 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.6% more
Miami: 1.8 vs Stanford: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.9% more
Miami: 127.8 vs Stanford: 96.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Miami: 389.5 vs Stanford: 340.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 16.0 7
MIA Score 25.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 19.6 25.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 96.9 199.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 389.5 / 340.7 404.0 / 144.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STAN
MIA
STAN
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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