Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Troy UL @ TROY

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

2-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

5-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Tony Sterner None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
TROY
0%
LOUISIANA --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Troy)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

33.4%

Troy Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

UL By 1-6 points

13.5%

UL By 7-13 points

10.4%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.7%

TROY By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21
LOUISIANA
27
TROY
Simulated Score
24
LOUISIANA
28
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim Troy (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 UL @ TROY 23 - 35
Nov 23, 2024 TROY @ UL 30 - 51
Nov 18, 2023 UL @ TROY 24 - 31
Nov 5, 2022 TROY @ UL 23 - 17
Nov 13, 2021 UL @ TROY 35 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.8% more
Louisiana: 1.9 vs Troy: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.9% more
Louisiana: 177.4 vs Troy: 113.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 21.0 23
TROY Score 27.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 18.0 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 113.8 / 177.4 165.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 362.2 / 346.8 345.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
UL
TROY
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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