Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Charlotte UNT @ CLT

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

6-1  |  Road

54
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

1-6  |  Home

20
Key Game
Chase Canada
KEY GAME

Chase Canada

#5 | Cornerback
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Chase Canada None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
0%
📊
CHARLOTTE
100%
NORTH TEXAS --
CHARLOTTE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
80.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

33.4%

Charlotte Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CLT +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

UNT By 1-6 points

16.7%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.0%

CLT By 1-6 points

13.5%

CLT By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
43
NORTH TEXAS
37
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
24
NORTH TEXAS
27
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Charlotte Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Charlotte (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Sim Charlotte (+25.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o61.5 Win
Proj Total: 80.0
B
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2025 UNT @ CLT 54 - 20
Oct 10, 2020 CLT @ UNT 49 - 21
Oct 26, 2019 UNT @ CLT 38 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +36.9% more
North Texas: 489.4 vs Charlotte: 309.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.3% more
North Texas: 197.5 vs Charlotte: 129.7
First Downs (L5) +34.0% more
North Texas: 27.5 vs Charlotte: 18.1
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Charlotte: 2.3 vs North Texas: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 43.0 54
CLT Score 37.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 27.5 13.0 / 31.0
Rushing Yards 129.7 / 197.5 104.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 309.0 / 489.4 399.0 / 754.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
UNT
CLT
UNT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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