Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Louisiana Tech WKU @ LT

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

5-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Tue, Oct 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

4-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Elin Jones

#50 | Defensive End
@
Dedrick Latulas
KEY GAME

Dedrick Latulas

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Elin Jones None-None
Dedrick Latulas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
100%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
0%
WESTERN KY --
LOUISIANA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

30.9%

Louisiana Tech Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

WKU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WKU By 7-13 points

9.6%

LT By 1-6 points

16.5%

LT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WESTERN KENTUCKY
46
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
27
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Tech Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisiana Tech Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Tech (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Louisiana Tech (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2025 WKU @ LT 28 - 27
Nov 16, 2024 LT @ WKU 12 - 7
Oct 5, 2023 WKU @ LT 35 - 28
Nov 24, 2018 WKU @ LT 30 - 15
Sep 16, 2017 LT @ WKU 23 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.1% more
Louisiana Tech: 135.8 vs Western Kentucky: 119.0
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Western Kentucky: 375.5 vs Louisiana Tech: 308.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 39.0 28
LT Score 46.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 19.5 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 135.8 / 119.0 109.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 308.3 / 375.5 449.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
WKU
LT
WKU
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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