Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Delaware MTSU @ DEL

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Wed, Oct 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

3-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Noah Matthews
KEY GAME

Noah Matthews

#13 | Defensive End
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Noah Matthews None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
100%
📊
DELAWARE
0%
MTSU --
DELAWARE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Delaware)
MTSUMTSU (-3.5) 0 DelawareDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

30.9%

Delaware Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

MTSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

MTSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

DEL By 1-6 points

16.5%

DEL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
46
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
27
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Delaware Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2025 MTSU @ DEL 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.3% more
Delaware: 1.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
Delaware: 23.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 20.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Delaware: 413.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 365.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 39.0 28
DEL Score 46.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 20.2 27.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 102.1 / 98.7 79.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 413.7 / 365.5 360.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DEL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DEL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
MTSU
DEL
MTSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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