Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Trail Blazers MIN @ POR

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

0-0  |  Road

118
FINAL
Wed, Oct 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

0-0  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

90.3%

Trail Blazers Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.8%

POR By 1-7 points

6.8%

POR By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
125
MINNESOTA
112
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
103
MINNESOTA
117
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o221.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u221.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 POR @ MIN 108 - 104
Feb 24, 2026 MIN @ POR 124 - 121
Feb 11, 2026 POR @ MIN 109 - 133
Oct 22, 2025 MIN @ POR 118 - 114
Feb 8, 2025 POR @ MIN 98 - 114
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.6%
Minnesota: 42.3% vs Portland: 30.7%
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
Minnesota: 26.4 vs Portland: 24.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Minnesota: 46.1% vs Portland: 43.0%
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Portland: 10.0 vs Minnesota: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 125.0 118
POR Score 112.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 42.3 31.0 / 50.0
Assists 24.0 / 26.4 25.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.9 3.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 46.1 40.0 / 48.8
Free Throw % 72.7 / 69.9 82.9 / 79.2
Rebounding 49.9 / 46.3 39.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.8 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 18.5 / 19.7 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MIN
POR
MIN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 63-53
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 67-49
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
TTL
56% 58-46-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 89-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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