Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lafayette @ Oregon St LAF @ ORST

LAFAYETTE

LAFAYETTELAF

5-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-7  |  Home

45
Key Game
Christian Bush
KEY GAME

Christian Bush

#38 | Place kicker
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Christian Bush None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LAFAYETTE
100%
📊
OREGON ST
0%
LAFAYETTE --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Oregon State)
LafayetteLAF (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lafayette Cover

0.2%

Oregon St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

LAF By 1-6 points

0.1%

LAF By 7-13 points

0.0%

ORST By 1-6 points

0.6%

ORST By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LAFAYETTE
46
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
10
LAFAYETTE
45
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim Oregon St (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 LAF @ ORST 13 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +103.0% more
Oregon State: 117.5 vs Lafayette: 57.9
First Downs (L5) +84.9% more
Oregon State: 21.5 vs Lafayette: 11.6
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
Oregon State: 1.8 vs Lafayette: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +77.9% more
Oregon State: 349.3 vs Lafayette: 196.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 6.0 13
ORST Score 46.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 11.6 23.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 117.5 / 57.9 365.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 349.3 / 196.4 517.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
--
ORST Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
--
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
--
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
LAF
ORST
LAF
ML
100% 4-0
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alabama Football's Worst Weather Games: From 1964 Snow Bowl to 2…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 7 hours ago
St. Thomas More Dominates Acadiana in District Opener
theadvertiser 1 week, 5 days ago
Notre Dame vs Purdue: Ideal Football Weather Forecast for Saturd…
yahoo 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Hammond's Late Strike Lifts No. 13 Texas Tech Past Oregon State …
ctinsider 3 weeks, 4 days ago